As we know, all stocks, mutual funds, and related investments are not equal. In the previous post, “The No-Frills Investment Strategy,” we considered a strategy for identifying investments that are likely to prove more equal than the general population. Similarly, not all investment climates are equal. During some periods, stocks seem to rise effortlessly; during other periods, gains, if any, are more labored and intermittent. In this post, you will learn two readily applied strategies for segregating climates that are generally more favorable for stocks from climates that are, on average, really not much better than neutral climates and that represent periods when severe stock market declines are most likely to take place.
Let’s consider possible alternatives. In the first, you invest in the stock market at all times, a strategy that has worked out well enough over the very long run. Stocks, on average, have had a century-long tendency to produce annual rates of total return of roughly 10% per year. However, you would have had to live through some serious bear markets—1929–1932, 1969–1970, 1973–1974, and 2000–2002—not to mention numerous other periods in between when stocks underwent serious intermediate and major term declines. In the second scenario, you invest only when certain investment models indicate that market moods are benevolent and the probabilities are more favorable than average that stocks will advance in price.
If you invest only when market climates are most favorable, you might still secure average returns in the order of 10% per year (actually a conservative estimate if we go by past history). However, you likely will be invested, on balance, mainly only during periods that stocks tend to advance. For the periods that you are invested— approximately 50% of the time, give or take—your capital produces returns not at a rate of 10% per annum while invested, but at a rate of about 20%, depending on the market index assumed. During the periods that you are out of stocks, your capital is not at risk and you usually can secure interest rate returns that generally exceed stock market dividend payouts, to augment returns secured when your capital is in the stock market.
I will show you two stock market indicators that, over more than three decades of history, have done a fine (not a perfect, but, nonetheless, a fine) job of defining the best periods during which to invest in the stock market. These indicators can be maintained and tracked just once each week; probably not more than 15 minutes or so is required—maybe even less. Moreover, the information that you require is widely available. You will not have to ferret out difficult-to-locate data from arcane sources.
As we move along into this work, we review tools associated with technical analysis (the art or science of predicting the future course of the stock market by analyzing current and past action of the stock market itself). These tools, such as moving averages and rate of change measurements, are useful in defining trends in the stock market as well as price momentum. Don’t worry if you are unfamiliar with these terms; definitions and explanations are forthcoming.
Finally, we review tactics that combine the use of market mood indicators with stock-selection strategies to see whether you can improve on the results of your powerful mutual fund selection techniques by combining them with market decisions based upon market mood indicators. Enough introduction. The time has arrived to cut to the chase.